* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * POLO EP201990 10/01/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 53 51 44 35 27 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 53 51 44 35 27 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 53 52 51 49 45 39 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 28 29 27 30 27 25 23 20 15 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 10 14 22 32 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 8 13 11 7 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 339 351 10 45 60 89 97 79 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 127 126 126 125 124 121 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 47 47 42 42 41 39 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 15 13 12 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 51 43 27 18 3 -5 -11 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 41 18 17 16 -15 10 13 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1656 1581 1537 1465 1352 1095 796 525 388 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.5 20.0 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.4 140.0 140.4 141.0 142.0 144.4 147.2 149.8 151.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 9 11 14 13 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):316/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -14. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -28. -36. -39. -43. -45. -48.