* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * RACHEL EP211990 10/01/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 61 61 59 59 58 56 55 54 54 53 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 61 61 59 59 58 56 55 54 54 53 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 60 64 66 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 27 22 22 18 19 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 10 6 5 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 0 2 3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 331 330 334 304 295 321 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 143 141 139 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 58 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 12 11 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 24 22 19 16 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 61 46 33 19 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 829 820 811 791 777 921 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.4 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.1 113.3 114.1 114.4 114.6 115.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 7 4 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):314/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 11. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3.