* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL121990 10/04/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 58 62 72 80 85 88 90 91 91 92 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 58 62 72 80 85 88 90 91 91 92 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 55 58 61 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 27 29 29 29 31 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 6 4 4 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -6 -5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 166 198 83 107 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.3 25.1 25.0 25.0 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 106 105 104 106 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 92 91 91 93 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.8 -57.4 -57.3 -57.5 -57.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 10 10 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 37 38 39 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 18 18 17 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -66 -45 -7 49 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 21 43 14 22 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2262 2213 2119 2048 2015 1857 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.6 29.4 30.2 30.8 33.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.1 42.6 42.8 42.6 41.8 39.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 8 11 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 27. 35. 40. 43. 45. 46. 46. 47.