* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KLAUS AL131990 10/04/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 62 68 76 81 87 95 99 102 104 104 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 62 68 76 81 87 95 99 102 104 104 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 58 62 66 71 75 77 80 81 82 81 79 V (KT) G00R 34 33 35 42 42 49 52 53 58 65 72 70 70 SHEAR (KT) 21 19 17 20 22 20 23 20 17 21 20 14 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 7 6 -1 0 4 3 3 6 0 6 4 2 SHEAR DIR 101 95 80 82 82 81 60 78 37 55 42 54 31 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 142 141 141 140 139 142 142 142 140 138 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 127 130 130 130 128 126 129 124 126 121 119 112 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 12 10 11 700-500 MB RH 63 62 65 65 66 67 65 59 55 51 50 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 22 24 25 27 27 29 34 37 41 44 45 850 MB ENV VOR 74 70 77 84 96 82 54 51 76 70 86 106 113 200 MB DIV 55 26 63 105 99 86 107 64 92 73 99 88 57 LAND (KM) 627 616 653 636 615 506 528 536 570 627 710 787 845 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.2 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.5 20.0 21.2 22.4 23.4 24.3 25.2 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 59.7 59.7 59.7 59.7 59.8 60.8 61.0 61.6 62.3 63.0 63.1 63.5 63.7 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 5 6 6 6 6 8 5 6 4 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):313/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 23. 31. 36. 42. 50. 54. 57. 59. 59.