* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL121990 10/04/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 58 62 72 77 81 84 85 85 85 85 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 58 62 72 77 81 84 85 85 85 85 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 55 59 62 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 38 31 32 33 36 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 9 10 10 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -5 -8 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 187 141 144 112 108 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.1 25.0 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 106 106 106 107 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 91 91 93 96 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.9 -57.2 -57.1 -57.3 -57.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 36 40 42 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 24 22 21 21 21 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -71 -40 -4 47 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 24 33 24 24 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2198 2161 2091 2063 2046 1749 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.4 28.6 29.2 29.7 30.3 34.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.6 44.1 44.2 43.6 42.3 40.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 10 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 20. 22. 24. 26. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 27. 32. 36. 39. 40. 40. 40. 40.