* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KLAUS AL131990 10/05/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 62 64 66 68 72 76 80 86 92 97 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 62 64 66 68 72 76 80 86 92 97 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 59 60 64 67 69 71 72 75 78 80 V (KT) G03R 42 36 41 36 39 35 35 33 35 37 45 46 53 SHEAR (KT) 19 23 19 20 25 26 22 24 25 24 27 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 4 4 4 6 4 0 4 0 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 69 76 76 68 64 83 74 71 52 72 66 75 50 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 149 149 149 153 149 150 148 149 149 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 136 136 134 142 135 135 130 133 132 138 137 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -53.7 -54.2 -53.6 -54.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 65 62 61 62 66 69 68 65 58 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 23 22 22 20 18 18 18 20 24 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 89 82 81 77 76 59 41 46 68 64 88 95 103 200 MB DIV 92 82 65 56 49 30 41 37 77 52 79 45 63 LAND (KM) 467 390 326 288 238 131 84 100 144 188 236 230 316 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.8 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.9 21.6 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 61.5 62.2 62.7 63.1 63.5 64.5 65.1 66.1 66.7 67.2 67.7 69.0 70.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 6 5 5 2 4 4 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):301/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 17. 21. 25. 31. 37. 42.