* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL121990 10/05/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 69 70 71 77 80 83 86 86 84 81 V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 69 70 71 77 80 83 86 86 84 81 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 69 70 69 67 68 71 72 75 77 77 74 V (KT) G04R 39 39 42 43 45 41 38 36 29 29 30 28 28 SHEAR (KT) 21 20 20 15 7 14 18 16 14 3 12 11 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 6 9 4 -5 -6 -9 -5 -6 -3 5 SHEAR DIR 99 114 102 79 63 324 312 80 87 114 112 135 146 SST (C) 25.1 25.1 25.1 24.9 24.6 24.0 24.4 24.7 24.8 24.6 24.8 24.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 106 106 108 106 103 103 102 103 102 100 102 102 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 94 96 94 91 94 88 88 85 84 86 86 83 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -57.2 -57.4 -57.6 -58.1 -57.8 -57.9 -57.1 -57.7 -59.1 -58.8 -59.0 -58.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 7 8 7 6 5 7 8 8 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 43 44 39 37 38 38 47 51 56 55 45 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 23 24 24 20 23 23 25 24 22 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR -6 34 76 113 102 132 125 169 167 149 143 98 65 200 MB DIV 22 7 19 30 40 -8 51 31 21 1 -43 -53 -33 LAND (KM) 2121 2151 2157 2143 2112 1739 1295 1398 1471 1301 1427 1466 1509 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.0 30.6 31.5 32.5 35.7 38.0 35.9 35.7 36.9 35.4 35.7 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 41.7 40.6 39.2 37.7 36.7 38.2 42.6 44.5 43.2 44.5 45.0 43.3 42.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 15 14 13 24 14 9 6 7 6 7 3 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 47/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -20. -23. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 19. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 12. 15. 18. 21. 21. 19. 16.