* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KLAUS AL131990 10/07/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 59 60 63 67 70 79 87 95 99 102 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 59 60 63 67 70 79 87 95 99 102 V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 53 53 54 56 59 62 67 72 78 84 85 V (KT) G00R 33 32 31 33 35 33 35 34 37 42 48 50 54 SHEAR (KT) 24 22 19 18 23 23 22 20 19 17 23 30 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 6 4 3 6 0 1 -3 2 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 84 85 103 95 81 85 79 105 77 81 38 45 48 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 144 144 147 147 148 147 147 146 148 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 131 129 128 132 130 129 129 130 134 139 135 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 12 11 700-500 MB RH 64 65 67 65 63 62 58 55 51 53 52 51 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 19 18 19 20 20 24 29 32 35 36 850 MB ENV VOR 40 47 57 67 70 69 82 72 79 91 98 109 144 200 MB DIV 85 77 83 82 77 55 35 -9 54 47 51 31 31 LAND (KM) 310 271 257 263 267 221 224 188 185 172 300 534 831 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.2 20.1 19.8 20.4 22.2 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 62.7 63.2 63.3 63.6 63.7 64.8 65.7 66.2 65.5 65.1 63.8 62.7 61.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 4 3 6 4 2 3 3 9 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):329/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 9. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 24. 32. 40. 44. 47.