* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KLAUS AL131990 10/07/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 58 59 63 67 71 80 86 93 100 105 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 58 59 63 67 71 80 86 93 100 105 V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 53 53 53 54 57 60 64 69 75 81 85 V (KT) G06R 40 41 43 37 39 42 40 39 52 49 52 53 62 SHEAR (KT) 23 22 21 18 23 23 21 17 16 14 18 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 11 10 8 5 5 4 5 4 9 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 84 80 91 87 77 83 63 89 53 89 58 75 35 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 144 144 144 146 148 148 150 150 150 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 130 131 127 127 131 131 128 131 131 130 134 132 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 11 12 11 12 13 13 14 13 14 12 13 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 61 58 58 53 50 47 49 48 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 21 20 22 23 25 30 32 34 37 40 850 MB ENV VOR 20 44 57 62 63 77 83 76 78 90 105 104 130 200 MB DIV 96 86 100 81 77 51 15 26 49 28 66 64 82 LAND (KM) 407 384 338 312 300 284 301 288 288 277 333 411 529 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.1 21.1 21.0 21.5 22.2 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 62.0 62.3 63.1 63.6 63.8 64.7 65.7 66.5 66.7 66.8 66.8 66.5 66.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 4 3 5 5 2 3 3 2 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):329/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 25. 31. 38. 45. 50.