* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KLAUS AL131990 10/07/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 59 60 63 67 72 80 84 90 92 92 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 59 60 63 67 72 80 84 90 92 92 V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 53 52 53 55 58 63 69 75 79 66 57 V (KT) G10R 45 35 37 38 36 34 34 38 33 38 42 41 35 SHEAR (KT) 26 24 22 19 24 25 21 20 13 19 16 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 12 8 7 7 3 0 0 -1 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 87 81 96 81 64 75 70 91 81 114 104 106 125 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 27.6 19.5 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 151 153 154 156 158 158 156 128 74 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 138 138 141 142 141 145 140 136 111 69 62 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 13 12 12 12 13 14 13 13 13 14 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 65 65 66 59 50 51 51 50 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 19 20 19 17 18 18 20 21 23 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 39 52 61 75 80 88 81 79 90 89 116 112 110 200 MB DIV 81 102 78 85 74 51 32 37 22 20 28 27 19 LAND (KM) 234 153 133 166 177 147 165 198 177 129 94 70 32 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.5 20.0 20.1 20.5 21.2 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 63.6 64.7 65.2 66.0 66.7 68.6 69.8 72.0 73.2 74.0 74.5 75.0 75.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 8 9 8 7 9 5 2 3 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):329/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 4. 5. 8. 12. 17. 25. 29. 35. 37. 38.