* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LILI AL141990 10/08/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 59 64 73 79 82 85 84 81 78 79 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 59 64 73 79 82 85 84 81 78 79 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 52 55 64 75 85 91 93 92 90 DIS V (KT) G08R 35 41 39 39 39 38 37 36 33 31 28 24 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 20 10 5 5 9 8 11 14 22 16 15 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -3 -5 -6 -5 -1 0 0 3 11 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 10 346 318 265 188 147 147 170 181 194 143 141 N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.1 25.2 25.7 26.3 26.8 27.4 27.7 28.1 27.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 106 106 106 108 111 117 123 131 135 141 137 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 89 90 91 94 96 102 109 119 124 132 129 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -57.0 -57.2 -57.8 -57.7 -57.8 -57.4 -56.8 -56.0 -56.1 -54.7 -54.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 36 34 35 33 33 32 31 31 31 34 32 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 24 29 30 30 30 29 27 24 22 19 14 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 108 110 98 89 89 83 46 41 30 61 71 N/A 200 MB DIV 31 19 12 -3 -21 -36 -71 -75 -60 -27 -7 23 N/A LAND (KM) 1483 1437 1438 1392 1447 1631 1767 1649 1384 1190 1024 889 N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.8 35.0 34.7 34.8 34.0 32.1 30.8 29.7 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.1 45.7 46.7 47.8 49.2 51.1 52.5 55.2 58.5 62.1 66.0 70.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 9 11 13 11 11 13 16 17 19 22 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):209/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -0. 2. 4. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 28. 34. 37. 40. 39. 36. 33. 34.