* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SIMON EP221990 10/09/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 43 50 52 58 60 60 63 69 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 43 50 52 58 60 60 63 69 70 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 40 43 45 45 45 46 47 48 V (KT) G01R 33 26 27 25 22 22 24 20 24 26 31 43 45 SHEAR (KT) 10 9 4 7 4 2 9 9 10 11 11 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -10 -7 -2 -2 -1 2 0 -6 -6 -3 -3 3 3 SHEAR DIR 144 145 155 157 167 156 328 241 237 212 204 211 227 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.3 27.6 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 150 149 148 145 137 139 137 139 145 146 144 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -54.8 -54.4 -55.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 11 11 11 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 65 66 66 65 66 60 57 50 50 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 14 16 17 19 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -8 8 14 15 21 39 1 29 42 39 37 29 200 MB DIV 59 47 33 74 83 90 73 64 14 22 2 39 52 LAND (KM) 786 869 941 968 997 1106 1231 1391 1509 1677 1847 2091 2291 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.8 16.3 14.4 14.5 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.8 111.1 112.2 113.4 114.7 117.4 119.9 119.7 121.7 123.6 125.8 128.7 131.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 13 13 9 8 9 10 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):281/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 16. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 20. 22. 28. 30. 30. 33. 39. 40.