* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SIMON EP221990 10/09/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 48 50 48 45 41 41 41 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 48 50 48 45 41 41 41 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 40 43 44 45 46 47 48 DIS V (KT) G02R 39 29 27 26 24 23 23 23 22 20 20 16 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 7 7 6 7 5 7 8 11 11 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -4 -2 -3 -3 1 1 -4 0 0 0 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 140 115 138 180 198 205 238 169 201 182 170 168 N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.7 27.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 149 147 143 137 133 129 129 131 135 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -55.3 -55.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 64 62 61 59 54 48 45 40 42 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -8 3 13 6 -1 3 5 0 10 13 25 N/A 200 MB DIV 71 60 51 78 79 47 35 11 -11 -23 -19 -22 N/A LAND (KM) 817 878 951 968 996 1112 1221 1338 1411 1526 1734 1974 N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 16.1 16.5 17.3 17.7 17.7 17.3 16.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 111.3 112.6 113.9 115.2 117.8 120.0 122.4 123.6 125.1 127.5 129.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 6 9 12 14 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):281/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 18. 20. 18. 15. 11. 11. 11.