* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LILI AL141990 10/10/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 58 60 62 61 60 57 56 60 62 64 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 58 60 62 61 60 57 56 60 62 64 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 52 55 59 69 76 78 71 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 39 40 36 33 31 31 24 23 20 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 10 12 11 9 25 23 32 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -4 -6 -1 1 5 1 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 139 145 137 190 216 216 208 173 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.7 28.0 27.5 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 118 120 123 126 136 141 133 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 106 110 112 114 127 132 121 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.8 -57.3 -56.8 -56.4 -55.9 -55.0 -55.5 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 11 11 10 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 38 33 31 32 30 29 30 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 23 22 20 15 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 68 49 36 37 24 15 -1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -37 -26 -36 -44 -50 -17 -25 13 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1830 1734 1712 1690 1576 1346 1093 809 600 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.2 31.2 30.7 30.2 29.9 29.6 29.2 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.2 50.7 53.0 55.2 57.2 61.5 66.5 71.0 74.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 19 19 18 21 21 17 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):294/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 11. 10. 7. 6. 10. 12. 14.