* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SIMON EP221990 10/10/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 44 49 51 50 48 45 42 43 44 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 44 49 51 50 48 45 42 43 44 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 43 47 51 55 59 61 60 DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 31 28 25 25 23 21 21 19 20 19 15 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 5 7 6 5 3 1 6 11 10 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -6 -1 -1 -3 -4 0 -2 3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 217 200 229 258 161 208 122 128 142 127 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 143 140 135 133 131 129 128 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -55.0 -55.0 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 -55.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 61 59 58 55 48 43 37 37 34 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 3 23 24 20 16 19 7 -3 -4 8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 31 37 53 52 24 8 -6 -32 -39 -39 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 898 937 987 1051 1091 1184 1260 1428 1557 1823 2114 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.7 18.2 17.9 17.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.1 115.0 116.2 117.5 118.4 120.3 121.7 123.8 126.1 129.2 132.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 11 9 9 8 10 12 15 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):287/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -11. -13. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 14. 16. 15. 13. 10. 7. 8. 9.