* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * MARCO AL151990 10/10/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 55 61 63 63 57 52 54 53 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 55 61 63 63 57 50 51 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 44 50 55 58 51 42 DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 26 24 29 29 28 25 23 25 20 19 18 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 22 30 23 20 21 19 20 25 30 36 49 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -5 0 -4 0 2 2 0 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 323 344 350 344 353 15 11 18 30 47 51 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.5 27.1 14.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 153 151 152 149 149 145 145 123 65 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 139 130 133 130 129 126 131 104 62 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.6 -54.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 12 12 10 11 8 8 6 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 50 49 47 47 44 40 34 30 33 30 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 17 18 18 17 16 13 12 10 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 143 139 152 133 129 103 90 68 95 124 88 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 39 19 47 47 22 55 38 37 30 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 44 94 93 65 52 121 187 142 146 80 17 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 23.6 23.4 23.2 23.3 24.0 24.9 26.7 28.5 29.1 29.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.0 83.7 84.2 84.1 83.3 83.1 83.2 83.8 84.2 84.0 83.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 10 3 4 4 4 6 13 4 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 25. 31. 33. 33. 27. 22. 24. 23.