* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LILI AL141990 10/15/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 34 34 33 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 37 37 36 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 35 30 27 21 17 16 15 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 34 33 32 31 34 39 41 31 28 24 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 36 48 51 54 55 47 39 29 28 28 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 4 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 46 64 83 92 110 115 113 112 126 145 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 14.0 10.9 7.8 11.5 14.4 16.8 17.8 18.6 18.2 7.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 76 74 72 74 76 77 78 79 76 64 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 72 71 72 74 73 73 74 70 63 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.6 -53.5 -54.2 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 53 53 49 48 45 39 37 33 32 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 15 18 20 23 24 18 14 10 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 16 23 8 7 19 56 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 11 6 -5 -27 -36 -39 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -18 -89 257 654 1082 1415 1079 528 201 8 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 45.7 48.4 50.2 50.5 49.7 47.5 45.5 43.4 42.2 40.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.0 56.7 50.2 44.3 38.2 28.7 22.2 15.6 11.3 8.8 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 40 43 42 39 38 29 25 22 15 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 42/ 34 CX,CY: 23/ 25 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 6. 10. 13. 14. 9. 1. -5. -8. -10. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -6. -7. -9. -17. -32. -42. -49. -56. -64. -70.