* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * VANCE EP241990 10/26/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 89 90 90 88 87 82 75 66 64 55 50 V (KT) LAND 85 88 89 90 90 88 87 82 75 66 64 55 50 V (KT) LGE mod 85 90 92 92 90 86 82 76 71 65 59 54 50 V (KT) G00R 28 30 30 30 32 38 43 47 49 50 44 40 36 SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 7 9 23 19 27 28 27 23 15 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 1 5 -1 4 7 5 7 3 1 6 SHEAR DIR 170 161 169 148 126 137 115 108 124 118 141 172 175 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 139 138 142 143 142 141 141 137 134 130 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.8 -52.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 9 11 12 11 12 9 11 9 11 10 12 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 59 58 57 57 55 56 50 47 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 16 16 20 23 24 23 21 23 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -34 -35 -32 -28 -40 -10 -2 17 23 25 12 12 200 MB DIV 51 30 10 12 23 25 66 19 15 11 -11 -21 7 LAND (KM) 341 363 393 414 414 369 296 285 319 338 422 497 577 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.0 18.7 18.6 18.2 17.9 17.4 16.9 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.6 109.2 109.5 109.5 108.9 107.9 107.7 107.8 107.8 108.4 108.9 109.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 5 1 1 4 3 2 1 3 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):313/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 12. 11. 8. 11. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -3. -10. -19. -21. -30. -35.