* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * VANCE EP241990 10/26/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 88 89 89 88 86 79 71 49 32 25 21 V (KT) LAND 85 88 88 89 89 88 86 79 71 49 32 26 26 V (KT) LGE mod 85 90 92 92 90 86 82 78 73 48 29 DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 36 35 34 35 38 42 46 48 45 39 16 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 17 18 13 15 23 16 21 26 21 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 3 6 0 4 12 4 10 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 158 142 148 136 115 122 116 98 106 91 122 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 26.9 5.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 146 147 147 147 142 129 58 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.9 -53.5 -54.6 -53.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 8 10 11 10 13 9 10 7 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 59 57 59 58 57 54 51 51 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 17 18 21 22 20 19 12 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -39 -40 -33 -24 -30 5 20 29 25 22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 23 19 14 27 31 27 55 35 30 -47 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 258 285 307 305 266 245 216 191 175 88 39 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.6 19.9 20.0 19.9 19.4 18.6 18.2 18.2 18.6 18.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.3 108.6 108.6 108.2 107.8 106.9 106.3 106.1 105.3 104.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 2 2 3 4 6 2 3 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):313/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -9. -21. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 9. 7. 6. -4. -15. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -6. -14. -36. -53. -60. -64.