* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TRUDY EP231990 10/26/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 99 95 91 82 74 67 60 55 47 35 23 V (KT) LAND 105 102 99 95 91 82 74 67 60 55 47 35 23 V (KT) LGE mod 105 102 97 91 86 76 68 62 57 53 48 43 36 V (KT) G10R 40 42 43 45 47 42 43 46 39 45 41 42 40 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 2 2 3 2 5 7 7 15 25 32 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 3 4 6 5 3 6 0 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 325 340 288 285 342 279 296 50 55 63 57 61 52 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.7 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 125 122 120 117 115 115 116 112 108 106 105 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -54.5 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 57 54 55 56 55 56 53 54 53 48 46 42 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 27 29 28 28 28 28 29 28 28 27 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 27 24 26 27 26 16 19 26 27 19 29 34 39 200 MB DIV 13 23 8 -7 9 16 27 28 51 33 16 3 11 LAND (KM) 1100 1168 1266 1297 1339 1411 1457 1475 1441 1315 1206 1160 1175 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.3 19.4 20.3 20.8 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 119.1 120.2 121.4 121.8 122.5 123.6 124.2 124.6 124.6 124.1 123.6 123.5 123.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 8 5 7 4 2 2 4 5 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -21. -31. -39. -46. -51. -56. -61. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 6. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -14. -23. -31. -38. -45. -50. -58. -70. -82.