* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TRUDY EP231990 10/28/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 88 83 77 71 61 49 37 26 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 88 83 77 71 61 49 37 26 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 89 84 80 76 69 63 55 47 40 34 30 25 V (KT) G01R 64 46 43 45 47 40 38 44 37 34 30 29 27 SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 6 10 17 25 35 39 40 39 47 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -2 3 5 3 9 7 4 6 7 8 -1 SHEAR DIR 13 38 103 111 46 67 57 66 59 61 66 81 95 SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 119 119 118 117 116 115 118 123 127 129 131 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -53.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.8 -55.5 -56.4 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 48 44 48 45 48 48 47 44 39 38 33 36 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 30 30 29 29 27 25 25 23 20 17 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -5 8 7 8 13 15 33 34 36 44 38 46 38 200 MB DIV -7 11 -3 -17 0 40 -4 8 -17 -14 -3 -4 20 LAND (KM) 1250 1318 1340 1351 1370 1413 1411 1390 1451 1602 1744 1918 2084 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 17.7 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.8 18.1 18.5 18.1 17.3 16.8 16.3 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 122.1 122.5 122.6 122.9 123.2 123.7 123.9 124.1 124.5 125.7 127.1 128.9 130.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 2 3 3 2 2 2 5 7 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -26. -33. -38. -42. -45. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -13. -16. -21. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -18. -24. -34. -46. -58. -69. -77. -85. -91. -97.