* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TRUDY EP231990 10/28/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 88 82 75 70 61 52 42 35 26 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 88 82 75 70 61 52 42 35 26 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 88 82 77 73 67 61 55 50 45 40 34 29 V (KT) G02R 60 44 39 39 39 38 36 38 36 30 27 28 24 SHEAR (KT) 9 8 12 11 15 19 23 29 32 42 42 47 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 5 0 2 0 7 8 4 6 5 7 6 9 SHEAR DIR 25 43 83 97 77 67 62 69 73 92 81 77 77 SST (C) 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 119 119 119 119 118 119 121 124 127 130 130 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -54.8 -54.9 -55.6 -56.1 -56.6 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 50 51 51 48 47 50 48 47 43 42 39 40 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 28 27 26 26 26 25 23 21 18 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 6 32 25 16 17 28 36 51 57 57 47 49 44 200 MB DIV 21 26 31 -5 6 32 -8 4 1 -11 8 13 42 LAND (KM) 1306 1414 1446 1470 1482 1538 1555 1555 1589 1689 1784 1882 1988 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.4 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 16.6 16.3 16.0 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.4 123.7 123.9 124.2 124.7 124.9 124.9 125.4 126.1 127.1 128.1 129.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 3 2 3 1 0 2 4 4 5 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -25. -31. -37. -41. -44. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. -19. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -20. -25. -34. -43. -53. -60. -69. -77. -83. -89.