* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TRUDY EP231990 10/28/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 88 82 75 69 59 47 37 30 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 88 82 75 69 59 47 37 30 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 89 84 80 76 70 65 59 53 48 42 36 29 V (KT) G05R 58 49 44 51 50 41 38 40 40 34 31 30 33 SHEAR (KT) 9 5 11 14 16 16 23 32 32 40 46 51 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -3 -2 0 0 4 3 4 5 8 7 9 SHEAR DIR 3 21 79 77 43 56 58 70 71 76 70 72 69 SST (C) 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.9 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 121 119 119 119 120 119 121 122 122 122 120 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -54.4 -54.7 -55.5 -55.9 -56.5 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 47 44 44 41 40 44 43 42 39 40 40 41 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 31 31 29 29 28 25 23 22 20 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 6 15 18 22 25 34 43 55 62 63 61 63 55 200 MB DIV 8 19 1 -17 -1 9 -9 -6 26 13 13 39 52 LAND (KM) 1247 1293 1326 1348 1415 1517 1560 1563 1612 1695 1789 1912 2016 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 17.7 17.7 18.0 17.9 17.4 17.3 17.6 17.7 17.6 17.7 17.8 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 121.9 122.2 122.6 123.1 123.8 124.6 125.1 125.5 126.3 127.3 128.6 130.2 131.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 3 2 3 5 5 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -25. -31. -36. -41. -44. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -19. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -13. -14. -18. -21. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -20. -26. -36. -48. -58. -65. -72. -80. -87. -93.