* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TRUDY EP231990 10/29/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 64 58 53 38 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 69 64 58 53 38 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 70 66 62 58 51 43 36 30 25 21 18 15 V (KT) G00R 44 41 42 47 45 36 30 28 25 27 26 28 28 SHEAR (KT) 12 15 21 24 25 39 43 49 52 52 59 58 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 2 2 7 2 4 2 1 2 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 57 61 64 62 51 57 55 66 75 80 83 84 83 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.6 25.7 26.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 116 116 115 112 112 116 118 118 120 126 132 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.6 -53.9 -55.5 -56.4 -56.9 -57.0 -56.7 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 42 41 43 42 39 39 36 30 27 29 32 35 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 27 27 27 27 24 19 16 14 13 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 21 29 35 39 36 38 41 47 40 49 50 200 MB DIV 12 34 15 3 20 10 14 10 -1 6 18 26 47 LAND (KM) 1286 1301 1304 1295 1254 1242 1254 1373 1511 1644 1810 2047 2206 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.8 19.4 19.0 18.7 18.2 17.3 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 122.9 123.0 123.1 123.2 123.1 123.3 123.7 124.9 126.3 127.7 129.3 131.4 134.1 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 3 3 2 4 7 7 8 9 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):323/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -24. -31. -36. -41. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -17. -20. -21. -23. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -17. -22. -37. -53. -67. -78. -84. -91. -95. -97.