* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TRUDY EP231990 10/29/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 63 58 52 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 69 63 58 52 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 70 66 63 59 53 46 39 33 28 24 20 16 V (KT) G03R 51 43 46 46 44 33 30 25 25 24 25 25 24 SHEAR (KT) 14 16 21 24 26 36 40 45 49 54 50 54 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 2 2 5 6 7 7 2 0 9 6 1 SHEAR DIR 49 56 66 63 53 58 51 72 83 85 72 78 79 SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 119 118 118 117 118 120 120 123 126 132 135 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -55.1 -55.7 -56.2 -56.2 -56.5 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 45 43 46 43 41 42 40 34 30 31 32 35 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 28 27 27 27 23 19 15 13 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 22 18 31 37 47 55 56 61 48 35 33 34 30 200 MB DIV 19 30 3 -5 4 -8 -6 8 -20 -2 19 31 24 LAND (KM) 1288 1276 1252 1239 1209 1215 1243 1342 1454 1569 1689 1845 2050 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.6 18.7 18.1 17.7 17.0 16.6 16.0 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 122.7 122.4 122.2 122.2 122.0 122.0 122.4 123.1 124.1 124.9 126.1 127.6 129.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 1 0 3 6 4 6 6 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):323/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -17. -23. -28. -33. -37. -41. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -4. -9. -15. -21. -24. -26. -28. -27. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -23. -39. -54. -68. -77. -84. -90. -93. -96.