* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * VANCE EP241990 10/29/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 48 48 49 47 45 42 41 35 31 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 48 48 49 47 45 42 41 35 31 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 46 47 49 52 55 59 61 60 57 51 V (KT) G05R 37 29 29 31 29 26 19 16 16 16 19 18 21 SHEAR (KT) 12 10 11 11 10 10 8 10 15 20 26 36 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 6 6 5 4 -4 0 -1 0 0 5 6 SHEAR DIR 110 100 107 109 85 80 37 25 10 3 15 33 48 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 131 132 132 129 128 129 128 128 129 126 128 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.8 -55.9 -56.6 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 61 59 61 60 53 49 47 49 49 51 54 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 18 17 16 15 13 11 9 9 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 0 5 26 31 21 4 17 22 27 21 15 -1 8 200 MB DIV 12 56 45 10 12 15 22 18 31 48 52 44 27 LAND (KM) 525 575 567 582 615 739 832 859 860 860 681 632 761 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 15.9 15.7 15.7 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.6 15.9 15.9 17.2 17.9 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.0 108.7 108.9 109.4 110.8 111.8 112.7 113.5 113.5 112.4 112.9 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 1 3 5 6 4 4 3 3 11 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -15. -16. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -10. -14.