* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * VANCE EP241990 10/31/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 22 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 24 24 24 20 20 16 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 22 28 29 34 41 53 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 6 6 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 70 59 54 43 37 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 128 126 122 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -54.7 -56.1 -57.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 42 44 45 44 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -10 -16 -22 -30 -23 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 1 5 24 39 39 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 661 645 647 596 525 416 396 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.7 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.4 115.0 115.3 115.2 114.6 114.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 6 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -20. -30. -39. -44. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. -3. -13. -21. -28. -34. -36. -38.