* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TRUDY EP231990 10/31/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 27 24 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 41 29 28 26 23 27 24 26 22 16 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 42 54 56 50 47 49 51 49 56 64 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 6 9 5 0 -1 -7 -2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 64 79 84 76 80 82 100 108 112 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.5 26.1 26.7 26.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 109 110 112 114 117 119 126 133 133 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -55.0 -56.0 -57.0 -57.7 -57.0 -55.4 -54.8 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 31 29 23 21 22 28 36 38 44 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 13 12 10 10 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 40 37 20 1 4 10 22 22 23 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 18 -11 -7 -4 23 27 23 17 5 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1084 1137 1191 1292 1400 1619 1877 2145 1967 1648 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.2 21.0 20.7 20.2 19.4 18.7 18.2 17.2 16.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.9 123.6 124.1 125.1 126.0 128.0 130.5 133.2 136.3 139.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 10 9 13 13 14 15 15 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 28/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 831 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -21. -31. -42. -52. -56. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 5. 7. 13. 18. 23. 27. 28. 30. 31. 31. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -13. -18. -26. -32. -39. -46. -51. -53. -54.