* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * VANCE EP241990 10/31/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 23 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 18 18 20 18 18 14 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 19 25 28 33 40 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 5 5 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 60 55 46 38 39 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 129 130 127 126 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.6 -55.9 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 9 9 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 42 44 45 45 40 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 8 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -20 -30 -32 -38 -26 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 5 5 21 29 15 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 655 635 606 562 483 401 411 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 19.3 20.2 20.9 21.5 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.5 113.9 114.4 114.6 114.4 113.9 113.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 8 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -9. -18. -27. -34. -39. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. -0. -7. -14. -19. -24. -27. -29.