* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * VANCE EP241990 10/31/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 22 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 35 28 25 22 22 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 30 39 42 46 51 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 57 53 47 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.2 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 124 119 112 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 -54.4 -55.1 -56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 43 45 44 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -19 -31 -52 -65 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 13 16 27 38 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 632 592 521 481 422 398 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.3 21.3 22.1 22.9 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.4 115.7 116.0 115.9 115.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -14. -25. -37. -47. -54. -58. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -13. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -5. -14. -24. -36. -45. -53. -56. -58.