* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TRUDY EP231990 10/31/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 27 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 50 33 30 28 27 24 23 23 25 23 24 21 0 SHEAR (KT) 43 50 49 44 44 46 53 57 48 48 52 60 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 3 9 7 6 4 0 6 6 -9 -7 N/A SHEAR DIR 50 53 66 69 59 63 73 77 65 86 94 94 N/A SST (C) 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.4 26.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 112 111 111 112 118 121 123 127 128 128 133 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -54.6 -55.1 -55.7 -57.1 -57.3 -57.2 -56.9 -56.7 -56.3 -55.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 8 9 10 9 9 8 8 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 34 32 28 23 21 22 27 33 44 49 51 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 19 16 14 13 10 8 7 6 6 6 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 65 66 60 64 17 5 23 27 27 29 24 N/A 200 MB DIV 21 25 13 10 -8 2 -11 9 25 28 43 -6 N/A LAND (KM) 1084 1071 1073 1081 1089 1199 1352 1516 1711 1960 2103 2156 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 20.9 20.8 20.7 20.6 19.7 18.7 17.9 17.4 16.9 17.1 16.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.8 122.4 122.3 122.3 122.3 122.8 123.8 125.2 127.3 130.0 131.9 134.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 1 1 3 7 7 9 13 11 10 14 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 28/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -10. -19. -30. -40. -48. -52. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -5. -8. -13. -18. -20. -21. -20. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -15. -24. -35. -45. -51. -53. -57. -57. -58.