* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TRUDY EP231990 10/31/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 27 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 37 32 30 28 24 26 24 24 22 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 46 55 59 56 51 60 64 68 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 0 0 3 7 -2 -3 -7 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 75 88 92 89 98 97 105 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.7 26.9 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 118 120 122 124 126 131 134 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.9 -55.8 -56.5 -56.9 -55.8 -54.4 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 11 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 29 25 23 21 21 28 39 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 15 14 12 11 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 22 22 18 11 30 34 38 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 5 -9 -7 1 16 29 28 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1320 1381 1480 1587 1680 1914 2145 2217 1944 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.3 18.8 18.3 17.9 17.2 16.5 16.3 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.4 124.9 125.7 126.6 127.4 129.7 131.9 134.1 136.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 28/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 807 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -7. -16. -27. -40. -52. -60. -64. -68. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. 25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -16. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -28. -37. -45. -49. -52. -53. -53.