* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * VANCE EP241990 10/31/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 28 29 29 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 28 29 29 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 24 24 24 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 29 26 24 24 21 17 18 16 20 18 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 19 20 24 31 41 45 52 56 54 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 6 7 6 5 2 1 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 80 62 58 46 32 32 36 66 63 60 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 129 128 128 127 127 127 127 131 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.3 -55.5 -56.4 -57.4 -56.6 -57.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 44 45 44 44 39 34 30 31 38 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 11 11 10 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -19 -23 -29 -26 -13 -24 -17 -6 11 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 2 7 29 53 26 21 20 47 44 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 706 696 676 655 606 591 633 701 769 882 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.2 19.2 18.6 18.2 17.8 17.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.2 113.7 114.2 114.3 114.1 114.0 114.5 115.0 116.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 7 4 3 4 3 4 7 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. -15. -25. -34. -39. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -7. -16. -25. -30. -31. -31.