* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * VANCE EP241990 10/31/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 22 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 23 24 25 24 21 17 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 20 25 30 37 46 58 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 5 5 -2 -5 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 70 60 54 41 35 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.4 26.0 26.7 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 132 128 123 130 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.7 -55.7 -56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 39 42 45 45 39 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -17 -12 -12 -25 -30 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 14 15 21 38 32 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 609 561 521 439 329 143 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.3 20.3 21.4 22.4 23.5 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.5 113.8 114.2 114.5 114.2 112.5 111.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 10 9 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -11. -22. -33. -42. -48. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. -4. -12. -21. -30. -36. -38. -40.