* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EKEKA CP011992 02/03/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 69 63 57 44 35 34 36 40 40 42 43 V (KT) LAND 80 75 69 63 57 44 35 34 36 40 40 42 43 V (KT) LGE mod 80 76 73 70 65 63 61 62 64 67 68 66 DIS V (KT) G02R 31 36 39 38 35 29 24 21 20 16 15 19 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 15 24 29 29 37 37 33 23 24 23 26 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 12 12 10 9 7 -1 -3 7 0 3 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 56 32 27 31 42 55 74 77 90 106 116 100 N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 133 139 138 132 133 134 134 133 132 137 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 11 12 13 14 14 13 13 13 N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 51 48 45 36 30 27 28 30 31 30 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 25 23 21 19 17 13 10 8 6 6 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 138 136 129 124 116 93 70 59 51 54 46 52 N/A 200 MB DIV -9 23 5 18 16 -2 3 -25 -17 -45 -24 -31 N/A LAND (KM) 2097 2227 2379 2540 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.4 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.4 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.2 8.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 174.5 176.0 178.1 179.9 ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 19 1757 1757 22 19 15 13 10 8 17 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):264/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -7. -10. -18. -23. -25. -23. -19. -17. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -13. -19. -23. -26. -25. -27. -26. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -23. -36. -45. -46. -44. -40. -40. -38. -37.