* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EKEKA CP011992 02/03/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 67 61 55 41 32 28 28 30 29 28 26 V (KT) LAND 80 74 67 61 55 41 32 28 28 30 29 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 80 75 71 67 61 57 55 53 52 51 49 46 44 V (KT) G09R 35 37 39 37 36 30 29 26 23 18 17 19 17 SHEAR (KT) 14 19 26 32 32 41 38 39 28 25 29 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 16 14 8 8 2 2 -4 14 6 8 3 8 SHEAR DIR 44 37 33 26 38 58 77 82 103 88 107 106 102 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 130 137 137 132 131 131 130 129 129 133 138 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 55 52 46 42 40 31 27 27 30 32 30 29 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 23 21 21 20 17 13 11 10 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 141 133 125 123 115 96 59 46 26 15 13 22 39 200 MB DIV 2 26 26 33 22 -2 -3 -23 -52 -46 -17 -29 -54 LAND (KM) 2135 2183 2283 2422 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.5 11.0 11.1 10.9 10.5 10.9 11.5 12.4 12.6 12.3 11.4 9.2 LONG(DEG W) 175.5 176.4 177.9 179.5 ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 16 1752 1751 18 16 14 11 8 7 14 22 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):264/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -12. -20. -26. -28. -27. -24. -22. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -20. -21. -23. -25. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -25. -39. -48. -52. -52. -50. -51. -52. -54.