* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SUBTROP AL011992 04/22/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 43 43 40 34 31 27 29 28 27 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 43 43 40 34 31 27 29 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 38 39 38 37 36 37 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 35 29 31 29 26 21 18 14 15 16 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 21 18 27 39 40 42 34 37 35 33 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 -2 -4 2 2 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 103 125 135 146 148 136 120 108 89 85 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.5 23.3 22.7 22.2 21.7 21.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 96 95 94 92 91 88 86 85 85 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 87 86 85 84 80 80 77 77 77 78 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.4 -58.0 -58.3 -57.8 -57.3 -57.1 -56.9 -56.3 -56.2 -57.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 44 40 39 38 42 43 44 42 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 19 19 17 14 13 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 92 81 57 45 42 32 23 22 36 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 37 1 -10 -16 -10 -19 0 28 17 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 884 861 847 843 839 866 987 1079 1220 1413 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.2 25.4 25.7 25.8 26.1 27.0 27.7 28.6 29.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.8 61.7 62.5 63.3 63.8 64.1 63.2 62.6 61.2 59.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 6 4 5 4 6 9 15 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -10. -16. -21. -23. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 17. 19. 22. 26. 29. 30. 32. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 13. 10. 4. 1. -3. -1. -2. -3.