* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SUBTROP AL011992 04/23/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 41 38 32 28 25 24 22 20 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 41 38 32 28 25 24 22 20 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 43 42 39 36 35 35 35 36 37 DIS V (KT) G07R 27 23 21 19 19 18 16 16 16 16 16 17 0 SHEAR (KT) 31 37 50 41 40 38 38 47 39 34 45 51 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -3 3 0 4 -4 0 0 -2 0 7 N/A SHEAR DIR 144 126 126 127 113 104 84 68 84 118 137 140 N/A SST (C) 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.6 23.1 23.0 22.8 23.2 23.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 95 95 93 94 96 97 93 92 90 91 92 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 83 82 81 82 86 89 85 83 81 80 81 N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -56.8 -55.9 -55.6 -55.4 -55.1 -55.9 -57.2 -57.8 -58.1 -57.9 -57.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 37 37 38 39 37 44 44 39 32 27 22 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 17 15 13 10 9 8 8 8 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 61 53 45 45 27 19 25 19 7 -11 -19 N/A 200 MB DIV 23 -11 -8 -25 -13 -22 24 50 18 -23 -14 -26 N/A LAND (KM) 837 787 778 796 808 863 1013 1316 1515 1694 1739 1690 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.4 25.6 25.8 27.1 27.2 27.1 26.2 25.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.0 63.5 63.7 63.8 63.5 62.6 60.1 57.1 54.5 52.2 51.1 51.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 1 2 8 14 13 11 8 5 3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -21. -27. -30. -33. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 22. 26. 27. 29. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -7. -13. -17. -20. -21. -23. -25. -29. -31.