* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * AGATHA EP011992 06/02/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 46 51 54 56 55 56 57 59 60 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 46 51 54 56 55 56 57 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 43 46 49 51 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 20 19 17 15 14 12 12 12 12 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 16 17 18 16 15 15 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -10 -6 -3 -1 0 -1 -5 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 320 341 341 332 356 350 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.4 28.2 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 161 160 158 152 146 144 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 69 72 67 63 61 55 53 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 16 11 11 4 7 15 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 120 103 77 80 38 30 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 562 573 582 535 468 396 384 418 476 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.3 14.0 15.1 15.9 16.0 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.2 103.6 103.9 104.2 105.0 106.0 106.8 107.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 7 8 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):348/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 19. 21. 20. 21. 22. 24. 25.