* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * AGATHA EP011992 06/03/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 64 63 62 56 51 47 44 42 41 39 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 64 63 62 56 51 47 44 42 41 39 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 66 66 66 65 61 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 17 17 18 18 15 14 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 21 23 21 19 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 1 1 -2 -5 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 343 360 17 21 19 359 342 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 147 144 139 133 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 10 11 11 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 54 52 48 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 14 11 3 13 50 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 73 39 34 49 68 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 246 246 289 325 344 456 538 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.2 17.0 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.7 105.6 106.5 107.3 108.5 109.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 8 7 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):343/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -4. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -21.