* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * AGATHA EP011992 06/03/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 64 64 63 62 57 52 48 46 44 42 40 V (KT) LAND 60 63 64 64 63 62 57 52 48 46 44 42 40 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 66 67 67 65 63 60 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 21 24 19 23 20 14 13 14 12 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 18 19 18 17 17 16 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 2 -3 -1 1 -3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 323 352 5 10 18 30 7 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.7 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 150 147 141 138 134 138 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 11 11 11 10 11 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 59 55 51 52 47 51 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 10 8 -13 -20 -4 11 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 77 37 45 53 34 38 47 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 261 201 211 229 206 229 270 314 397 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.7 17.9 17.9 17.2 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.2 103.7 104.4 105.2 105.9 106.5 107.0 106.9 107.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 6 3 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):343/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -3. -8. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20.