* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * AGATHA EP011992 06/03/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 64 64 64 61 57 54 52 51 51 50 V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 64 64 64 61 57 54 52 51 51 50 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 66 67 68 68 68 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 16 17 15 14 13 12 11 10 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 21 23 20 17 15 14 15 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -8 -3 -1 -5 -3 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 324 349 9 15 7 13 358 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 149 146 142 139 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 11 12 12 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 60 56 53 56 53 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -20 -24 -34 -29 -20 -3 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 67 29 26 45 31 27 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 246 199 202 221 222 230 240 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.4 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.1 103.4 103.9 104.6 105.1 105.6 106.0 105.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 5 2 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):343/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10.