* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ONE AL021992 06/26/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 23 21 19 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 24 25 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 64 55 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 52 57 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -62 -35 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 76 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 149 129 81 -94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.6 28.4 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.1 84.1 83.5 82.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 48/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -11. -19. -25. -29. -30. -29. -26. -23. -16. -9. -3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -16. -20. -23. -23. -22. -19. -16. -9. -2. 4. 9.