* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CELIA EP041992 06/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 113 107 99 82 68 57 49 44 41 42 41 V (KT) LAND 115 117 113 107 99 82 68 57 49 44 41 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 115 117 113 105 98 85 77 71 67 65 63 62 62 V (KT) G06R 27 25 20 18 18 19 22 24 22 22 21 23 21 SHEAR (KT) 15 14 11 10 14 10 12 12 14 9 13 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 0 -4 1 1 0 -2 -4 -7 -8 -5 SHEAR DIR 233 252 241 243 260 270 278 279 270 258 229 267 251 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.5 26.9 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 139 136 133 128 130 136 139 141 142 144 145 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -54.2 -53.7 -54.4 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 9 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 71 67 67 66 64 65 64 61 65 65 64 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 16 14 15 14 13 13 12 12 10 10 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 70 53 48 54 49 47 53 58 67 65 63 54 40 200 MB DIV 49 45 21 18 18 -4 18 -9 4 9 12 25 49 LAND (KM) 731 715 735 797 841 895 1091 1390 1687 1943 2197 2412 2534 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.5 15.9 14.8 13.3 12.3 11.6 11.1 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.1 110.9 112.1 113.3 115.2 117.3 120.3 122.8 125.2 127.8 130.0 131.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 12 11 9 13 18 10 15 13 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -18. -27. -34. -40. -44. -48. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -18. -20. -22. PERSISTENCE 8. 12. 13. 12. 7. 3. 1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -0. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. -2. -8. -16. -33. -47. -58. -66. -71. -74. -73. -74.