* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CELIA EP041992 07/03/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 23 22 20 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 V (KT) G09R 33 31 32 30 30 28 26 27 25 25 26 25 22 SHEAR (KT) 15 14 9 6 11 14 13 12 13 20 18 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -5 -6 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 292 318 338 308 286 289 304 332 326 343 12 11 347 SST (C) 24.9 24.7 24.7 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 109 110 110 111 111 113 111 113 116 122 123 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 53 50 48 46 45 42 47 45 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 21 20 18 18 16 16 14 13 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 38 36 38 36 33 40 38 41 40 48 35 63 58 200 MB DIV 53 23 6 3 -1 -5 20 1 -16 -3 10 -3 22 LAND (KM) 1880 1921 1977 2053 2104 2172 2160 2045 1887 1753 1555 1325 1084 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.1 18.0 17.5 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 129.9 130.7 131.5 132.3 132.8 133.5 134.3 135.4 136.9 138.2 140.1 142.4 144.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 6 4 4 4 7 6 8 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):286/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -12. -17. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -13. -17. -23. -26. -32. -30. -29.