* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CELIA EP041992 07/04/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 28 26 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 28 26 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 30 28 28 28 24 23 22 22 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 2 3 8 11 4 6 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -3 0 1 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 123 141 173 168 173 82 39 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.5 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.1 24.1 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 106 106 106 103 102 102 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 45 44 43 43 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 16 14 12 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 33 31 26 20 44 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -1 7 22 12 -3 -26 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2063 2119 2169 2150 2146 2070 1914 1728 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.1 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.2 133.5 133.8 133.9 134.3 135.0 136.5 138.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 2 5 4 7 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 1. -1. -9. -17. -22. -24. -26. -27. -29.