* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DARBY EP051992 07/04/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 61 66 76 77 74 67 60 55 47 38 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 61 66 76 77 74 67 60 55 47 38 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 55 55 56 57 55 52 49 46 43 39 35 V (KT) G04R 40 39 40 44 43 42 53 47 42 42 41 36 33 SHEAR (KT) 17 16 14 9 6 12 20 16 13 18 11 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 5 3 3 5 11 -1 5 -3 10 4 2 SHEAR DIR 186 185 184 187 217 260 254 241 285 292 275 227 246 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.0 26.6 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 148 148 147 144 135 134 112 110 108 109 101 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -52.7 -53.4 -52.3 -53.0 -52.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 12 10 9 7 4 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 83 85 86 86 84 85 82 74 68 67 63 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 22 25 27 30 33 31 29 29 29 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR 79 78 74 71 79 88 120 121 146 145 162 139 122 200 MB DIV 139 106 127 131 163 134 181 89 57 21 43 -9 0 LAND (KM) 587 546 532 504 474 640 684 507 726 1122 1293 1434 1530 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.3 13.0 13.8 14.8 15.8 16.9 19.8 21.3 19.8 19.4 19.4 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.8 103.2 104.6 105.9 109.7 111.5 113.6 118.3 121.8 123.8 125.7 127.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 16 16 19 15 12 22 22 13 9 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):239/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 8. 6. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 15. 14. 12. 12. 12. 10. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 26. 27. 24. 17. 10. 5. -3. -12.