* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CELIA EP041992 07/04/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 30 29 25 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 30 29 25 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 25 25 26 23 21 19 20 21 17 20 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 10 6 5 11 10 14 19 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 3 8 10 14 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 131 223 181 187 236 344 48 62 62 66 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 25.4 25.2 25.1 24.9 24.6 24.5 24.8 24.9 25.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 116 115 113 110 108 108 112 112 116 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 44 41 41 39 37 34 32 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 13 13 12 10 8 7 5 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 42 46 55 53 64 58 61 28 19 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 9 16 29 18 -5 -24 -25 -31 -18 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2065 2145 2202 2129 2051 1921 1770 1465 1215 969 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 17.5 18.0 18.2 18.5 18.9 19.5 19.8 20.4 20.7 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.9 132.7 133.7 134.6 135.3 136.5 137.9 140.8 143.2 145.6 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 7 10 8 6 7 10 13 10 14 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -4. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16.