* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DARBY EP051992 07/06/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 97 96 90 74 59 45 33 26 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 95 97 96 90 74 59 45 33 26 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 96 96 91 83 67 56 49 44 41 38 36 32 V (KT) G03R 44 38 35 36 35 35 30 29 28 28 27 30 30 SHEAR (KT) 3 5 5 6 12 12 13 9 7 5 3 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 5 5 2 -1 6 3 7 2 10 4 0 SHEAR DIR 263 273 269 274 296 318 292 261 267 274 322 78 89 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.2 24.7 23.5 22.8 23.2 23.0 23.0 23.4 23.6 23.1 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 129 113 100 92 94 93 93 97 99 94 91 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 4 3 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 82 80 80 77 73 66 60 57 54 54 51 48 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 28 28 27 26 25 23 22 20 18 16 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 90 94 102 103 99 92 138 119 108 84 61 33 64 200 MB DIV 112 93 64 52 43 -1 20 6 -2 -11 2 5 -3 LAND (KM) 548 550 571 604 732 947 1174 1376 1531 1697 1785 1873 1782 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.1 20.3 21.5 22.0 22.2 21.7 21.6 22.2 22.9 23.6 24.7 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 113.4 115.0 117.0 118.8 122.1 124.5 126.8 128.9 131.5 133.7 136.0 138.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 21 20 17 14 9 11 11 12 10 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):307/ 20 CX,CY: -15/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -4. -8. -18. -29. -38. -46. -51. -55. -59. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -17. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 6. -0. -16. -31. -45. -57. -64. -70. -78. -86.