* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DARBY EP051992 07/06/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 97 96 89 74 58 43 30 23 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 95 97 96 89 74 58 43 30 23 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 96 96 91 83 68 58 51 45 41 39 37 34 V (KT) G08R 38 35 33 32 31 30 27 27 23 25 24 23 26 SHEAR (KT) 1 1 3 5 11 14 14 10 13 5 7 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 4 7 4 -1 2 1 1 -1 1 3 4 SHEAR DIR 259 360 306 279 316 332 325 298 279 252 252 54 81 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.0 24.7 23.4 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.1 23.2 23.5 23.6 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 127 113 99 95 95 95 93 95 97 98 94 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 77 78 76 70 66 61 56 54 54 52 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 25 25 23 23 21 19 17 15 14 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 70 90 100 108 113 128 147 122 112 74 56 37 42 200 MB DIV 92 73 65 77 80 -3 -1 -6 0 -22 -17 -10 -3 LAND (KM) 498 500 558 604 739 964 1140 1342 1464 1614 1696 1786 1840 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.7 20.6 21.5 22.1 21.7 21.6 21.3 21.6 22.4 23.2 23.5 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 113.4 115.3 117.0 119.0 121.8 124.0 126.2 127.8 129.9 131.9 133.6 135.1 STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 16 11 11 9 8 11 8 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):307/ 20 CX,CY: -15/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -18. -28. -37. -45. -51. -55. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. -19. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 6. -1. -16. -32. -47. -60. -67. -73. -79. -84.